Wednesday, January 16, 2008
BARBADOS chooses the DLP after three consecutive terms of BLP leadership
WOW.
DISCLAIMER: IANAPP, I Am Not A Political Pundit
IANAPP (I Am Not A Political Pundit), and I rarely follow politics. Remember this as I am writing this post just as a casual observer, analyzing and drawing conclusions based on what l know from reading, seeing and listening to what's been going on...
I think that the D's have a difficult road ahead of them. In particular, the fact that the D's haven't won a general election in 15 years and their representation in the House has been that of a very small minority.
The tables have now turned (and my goodness, how they've turned!). The DLP now rules the House after being in the extreme minority for 15 consecutive years and having not won an election during that same time period. The DLP has delivered a K.O. to the BLP by winnning the election and by now enjoying a similar level of House representation to what the BLP has had over the years.
David Thompson should be called the 'comeback kid', or something like that, for what he and the DLP party has pulled off. As I said, I do not follow politics, but DT and the DLP must've had one helluva fight. The DLP is back after years of low representation in the House, not winning an election (while people only remembering the bad times when the D's were in power) and one of the biggest blows, CM leaving the D's to go over to the B's.
I personally thought that it was going to be a very close election (I'm not disclosing who I voted for, or even if I voted), with the BLP still winning. But lo and behold! The people have spoken. Barbadians (the majority of them), have listened to the DLP and have given them the opportunity to deliver on their promises. Amazing. Whoever said that Barbadians don't rock the boat and are risk-adverse were dead wrong.
However, if DT and the D's thought that they had a long fight to the top, they need to think again (which I'm sure they realize). Now is when the battle really starts. The fight for the social and economic future of this country is on. This will be the most trying four years that the D's have ever seen.
In particular, the costs (and paying back), of the major projects the island has recently undertaken i.e., highways and the prison, cost of living, the national debt, the fact that there will be tough economic times ahead as a result of (but not limited) high oil prices, the subprime mortgage fiasco in the US and the normal day-to-day geo-political conflicts in places like Iran and elsewhere on the African continent.
(The head of the US Fed also recently said that the 2008 outlook is worse than originally forecased/predicted Recall: When the US sneezes, the World catches a cold, or something like that.)
To make matters worse, I believe that the DLP will come under intense scrutiny (moreso than usual, I think), especially with regards to economical performance issues. The D's asked the people for a change and they have said 'yes' (and very loudly based on the voting results). Any failures to deliver will, I think, result in a 'I told you so', kind of display from the BLP, and might make some people second guess themselves about putting the DLP in power.
I myself am wondering...even if David Thompson & Co. have a tough time, maybe the Barbadian public will be a little forgving and cut them some slack. I mean, the B's have governed the island for 15 years and people know this. As such, they should also know the D's cannot swoop in overnight with sweeping reforms and changes and magically make all of the islands problems disappear.
Put another way, when a company has gone through tough times, or when the shareholders want a change, the shareholders bring in new management (happens all the time in places like the US, CEO's step down or are replaced). However, good things do not happen overnight. It takes a lot of hard work to turn around a company, and while the shareholders will be watching carefully, they also have to realize that the new management team needs time to get things organized and then, and only then, can the company move forward and make a difference (a positive one hopefully).
Despite all of the above, last night's results sent a strong message to the B's and to other political parties around the world: Change is constant. Barbadians may not be as complacent, nor as risk averse as some people would think. Obviously, Barbadians (or at least the majority of them), wanted a change. The B's had an unprecedented 3 terms (3x5, 15 yrs of Government) without any major changes in their own political party structure that I can recall (except for that big bombshell when CM split from the D's and joined the B's).
If I remember correctly, one of the CBC election panelists, the rep for the BLP had said that the loss may have been as a result of Barbadians fearing a fourth term with Arthur, or something like that. HH (Hartley Henry), replied by saying that it may not be the reason, instead, he believed citing T&T when Manning won another term, that it was because he (Manning) radically changed his Government, he saw that there was a need for new blood, and some house cleaning, and that's what he did. Hartley said that that was one of the major contributing factors of Manning's win (I can't quote HH word for word because I can't remember his exact words, only the gist of them).
I interpret this by thinking that maybe if Owen Arthur had done some radical house cleaning in his own party, maybe things would have been different. Maybe the B's might have won (by a small amount), or maybe the would have still lost, but not as badly as they have in this election. Maybe...
Howver, what's done is done and the vast majority of people have spoken, the D's have been granted their wish. The B's (I'm sure) did not see this coming, and will study the 2008 election from top to bottom like a school child studying for the 11-plus exams. The BLP will be watching every step of the DLP's movement and will no doubt be very vocal in the House, the media and in the their remaining constituents.
What still amazes (note that I did not say disappoints/excites, because I'm not getting into what political party I voted for, or did not vote for), me is the fact that the public have made such a swift and huge jump to the DLP ship. To say that it was a slaughter of the BLP may be harsh and unkind, but the B's definitely took a sound beating.
This election may even end up in some Caribbean political text books. Let future governments or current governments understand something clearly: never underestimate the power of the people, especially the majority of the people. Barbadians, under the leadership of the DLP, have some interesting and hoepfully, good times to look forward to.
Congrats should therefore go to the DLP and their supporters. It was an extremely hard fight but you proved the B's wrong, and you've won the hearts and minds of the people by winning after 15 years, and not only winning, but overcoming major questions concerning the strength of the party itself, the short time in which you had to prepare and finally, by winning the majority of the House. Be you a BLP, PEP, or PDC supporter, you've got to be fair and give Jack his jacket.
DISCLAIMER: IANAPP, I Am Not A Political Pundit
IANAPP (I Am Not A Political Pundit), and I rarely follow politics. Remember this as I am writing this post just as a casual observer, analyzing and drawing conclusions based on what l know from reading, seeing and listening to what's been going on...
I think that the D's have a difficult road ahead of them. In particular, the fact that the D's haven't won a general election in 15 years and their representation in the House has been that of a very small minority.
The tables have now turned (and my goodness, how they've turned!). The DLP now rules the House after being in the extreme minority for 15 consecutive years and having not won an election during that same time period. The DLP has delivered a K.O. to the BLP by winnning the election and by now enjoying a similar level of House representation to what the BLP has had over the years.
David Thompson should be called the 'comeback kid', or something like that, for what he and the DLP party has pulled off. As I said, I do not follow politics, but DT and the DLP must've had one helluva fight. The DLP is back after years of low representation in the House, not winning an election (while people only remembering the bad times when the D's were in power) and one of the biggest blows, CM leaving the D's to go over to the B's.
I personally thought that it was going to be a very close election (I'm not disclosing who I voted for, or even if I voted), with the BLP still winning. But lo and behold! The people have spoken. Barbadians (the majority of them), have listened to the DLP and have given them the opportunity to deliver on their promises. Amazing. Whoever said that Barbadians don't rock the boat and are risk-adverse were dead wrong.
However, if DT and the D's thought that they had a long fight to the top, they need to think again (which I'm sure they realize). Now is when the battle really starts. The fight for the social and economic future of this country is on. This will be the most trying four years that the D's have ever seen.
In particular, the costs (and paying back), of the major projects the island has recently undertaken i.e., highways and the prison, cost of living, the national debt, the fact that there will be tough economic times ahead as a result of (but not limited) high oil prices, the subprime mortgage fiasco in the US and the normal day-to-day geo-political conflicts in places like Iran and elsewhere on the African continent.
(The head of the US Fed also recently said that the 2008 outlook is worse than originally forecased/predicted Recall: When the US sneezes, the World catches a cold, or something like that.)
To make matters worse, I believe that the DLP will come under intense scrutiny (moreso than usual, I think), especially with regards to economical performance issues. The D's asked the people for a change and they have said 'yes' (and very loudly based on the voting results). Any failures to deliver will, I think, result in a 'I told you so', kind of display from the BLP, and might make some people second guess themselves about putting the DLP in power.
I myself am wondering...even if David Thompson & Co. have a tough time, maybe the Barbadian public will be a little forgving and cut them some slack. I mean, the B's have governed the island for 15 years and people know this. As such, they should also know the D's cannot swoop in overnight with sweeping reforms and changes and magically make all of the islands problems disappear.
Put another way, when a company has gone through tough times, or when the shareholders want a change, the shareholders bring in new management (happens all the time in places like the US, CEO's step down or are replaced). However, good things do not happen overnight. It takes a lot of hard work to turn around a company, and while the shareholders will be watching carefully, they also have to realize that the new management team needs time to get things organized and then, and only then, can the company move forward and make a difference (a positive one hopefully).
Despite all of the above, last night's results sent a strong message to the B's and to other political parties around the world: Change is constant. Barbadians may not be as complacent, nor as risk averse as some people would think. Obviously, Barbadians (or at least the majority of them), wanted a change. The B's had an unprecedented 3 terms (3x5, 15 yrs of Government) without any major changes in their own political party structure that I can recall (except for that big bombshell when CM split from the D's and joined the B's).
If I remember correctly, one of the CBC election panelists, the rep for the BLP had said that the loss may have been as a result of Barbadians fearing a fourth term with Arthur, or something like that. HH (Hartley Henry), replied by saying that it may not be the reason, instead, he believed citing T&T when Manning won another term, that it was because he (Manning) radically changed his Government, he saw that there was a need for new blood, and some house cleaning, and that's what he did. Hartley said that that was one of the major contributing factors of Manning's win (I can't quote HH word for word because I can't remember his exact words, only the gist of them).
I interpret this by thinking that maybe if Owen Arthur had done some radical house cleaning in his own party, maybe things would have been different. Maybe the B's might have won (by a small amount), or maybe the would have still lost, but not as badly as they have in this election. Maybe...
Howver, what's done is done and the vast majority of people have spoken, the D's have been granted their wish. The B's (I'm sure) did not see this coming, and will study the 2008 election from top to bottom like a school child studying for the 11-plus exams. The BLP will be watching every step of the DLP's movement and will no doubt be very vocal in the House, the media and in the their remaining constituents.
What still amazes (note that I did not say disappoints/excites, because I'm not getting into what political party I voted for, or did not vote for), me is the fact that the public have made such a swift and huge jump to the DLP ship. To say that it was a slaughter of the BLP may be harsh and unkind, but the B's definitely took a sound beating.
This election may even end up in some Caribbean political text books. Let future governments or current governments understand something clearly: never underestimate the power of the people, especially the majority of the people. Barbadians, under the leadership of the DLP, have some interesting and hoepfully, good times to look forward to.
Congrats should therefore go to the DLP and their supporters. It was an extremely hard fight but you proved the B's wrong, and you've won the hearts and minds of the people by winning after 15 years, and not only winning, but overcoming major questions concerning the strength of the party itself, the short time in which you had to prepare and finally, by winning the majority of the House. Be you a BLP, PEP, or PDC supporter, you've got to be fair and give Jack his jacket.
